Haryana and J&K: States of surprise for BJP and Congress

For the second straight time in India, election results have upended poll predictions, turning political parties introspective and adding intrigue to the next round of state elections scheduled for later this year. 

In Haryana, while the Bharatiya Janata Party exceeded expectations for a third straight term, the Congress was left stumped by its underwhelming show. In Jammu & Kashmir, the BJP, which altered the political status of the erstwhile state in 2019, has been kept out of power by the National Conference-Congress combine.

When the dust settled on Tuesday evening, there was something for all sides in the updated assembly map of India, except the Congress. The BJP kept hold of a state, and another regional party returned to power. But the Congress, in spite of the tailwinds that were projected for it, faltered in wresting back power in Haryana.

In India’s states, it is still the disparate band of regional parties that has a larger footprint than the two primary national parties. That was the case in May 2019, and remains so in October 2024. But the BJP has made gains and is closing in—it currently has a chief minister in 13 states, up from 11 states in May 2019. 

Further, BJP's all-India seat count has increased from 1,364 to 1,564, buoyed by retentions, and gains in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Odisha. The Congress has been reduced to power in just three states. 

On both chief ministers and seats, the count for regional parties has stayed stable.

Haryana surprise

Nearly every exit poll had predicted a thumping victory for the Congress in Haryana. In the Lok Sabha election in April-June, the Congress set the narrative in a state where an anti-incumbency sentiment prevailed against the BJP and regional parties were in disarray. The Congress steadily increased its vote share from 21% in the 2014 national election to 28% in 2019 and 39% in 2024, but this wasn’t good enough in the latest state election.

In 2019, the BJP had won with a 36% share in the state election. This time around, other parties lost vote share, and while those gains went predominantly to the Congress, the BJP also benefitted, increasing its vote share to 40%. The BJP experienced marginally more close contests than in 2019, and did better in scraping through. It won 12 of the 48 assembly seats with a margin of less than 5%, against 11 seats in 2019.

J&K unity

In 2014, when assembly election was last held in Jammu and Kashmir, the BJP won 25 seats, all in the Jammu region. Then followed a period of turmoil, with Article 370 being abrogated and newly delimited assembly seats introduced. With the delimitation exercise allocating five more seats to Jammu, this was expected to favour the BJP. But the BJP's tally has barely budged, at 29 seats, again almost all of those in Jammu.

In 2014, the Congress-National Conference alliance fell apart just before polls. This time, that alliance held together and secured a majority by itself, diminishing the impact of the five members the lieutenant-governor can appoint. The Congress-National Conference alliance has swept Kashmir, and even in Jammu, it has secured three seats. While the combine pushes for restoration of full statehood, it will be challenged by the powers the Union government has bestowed on itself in the new dispensation.

The BJP factor

Looking ahead, four state elections are scheduled in the rest of 2024 and 2025, with the BJP and its allies defending the maximum seats. The next election will be in Maharashtra, which has been a political roller-coaster in the past two years. The Shiv Sena and then Sharad Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (SP) split. But even these could not prevent the Lok Sabha tally of the BJP alliance tumbling from 41 seats in 2019 to 17 seats in 2024.

The Congress alliance was expected to do well in Maharashtra, but Haryana has been a chastening experience, brought on by the BJP’s formidable political machinery and electoral chops. Those attributes will be in the minds of incumbents in Delhi and Jharkhand, where sitting chief ministers have been jailed on criminal charges. While the incumbent Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha in Jharkhand are frontrunners, one message from the Haryana and J&K elections is: don’t write off the BJP easily.

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